Keno Probability & True Odds Calculator
Keno is often called a “game of luck,” but in 2026, savvy New Zealand players know that luck is just math in disguise. Every draw of the 80-ball grid is governed by strict probability. Our Keno Probability & True Odds Calculator is designed to pull back the curtain, showing you exactly how likely you are to hit your chosen “spots” before you place your bet.
Why Use an Odds Calculator?
In the regulated 2026 market, different licensed platforms offer varying paytables. A “catch 5” on one site might pay significantly more than on another, but the mathematical probability of catching those numbers remains the same. By understanding the “True Odds,” you can:
- Identify Value: See which casinos offer payouts that actually reflect the difficulty of the draw.
- Manage Risk: Decide if a high-risk 10-spot chase is worth the outlay or if a 7-spot “sweet spot” bet fits your bankroll better — something discussed further in our betting guide.
- Avoid Myths: Confirm that every draw is independent, regardless of “hot” or “cold” number streaks.
Keno Probability Table: 1 to 10 Spots
The following table represents the standard probability for a 20/80 Keno draw (20 numbers drawn from a pool of 80). These are the “True Odds” you are playing against every time the RNG (Random Number Generator) fires.
| Number of Spots Picked | Probability of Hitting ALL Picked | True Odds (1 in X) |
| 1 Spot | 0.25000000 | 4.00 |
| 2 Spots | 0.06012658 | 16.63 |
| 3 Spots | 0.01387531 | 72.07 |
| 4 Spots | 0.00306339 | 326.44 |
| 5 Spots | 0.00064492 | 1,550.57 |
| 6 Spots | 0.00012898 | 7,752.84 |
| 7 Spots | 0.00002440 | 40,979.31 |
| 8 Spots | 0.00000435 | 230,114.61 |
| 9 Spots | 0.00000072 | 1,380,687.65 |
| 10 Spots | 0.00000011 | 8,911,711.18 |
Understanding the “House Edge” and RTP
The difference between the True Odds (above) and the Casino Payout is known as the House Edge. In 2026, New Zealand’s licensed online operators typically offer an RTP (Return to Player) of 95% to 97%.
For example, if the True Odds of a 1-spot win are 4.00, a “fair” payout would be $4 for every $1 bet. However, to maintain the platform and comply with NZ gaming taxes, a casino might pay $3.00. You can compare these payout differences when checking top NZ casinos, ensuring you choose a site with strong value.
Calculator Instructions
Our interactive tool (located below) allows you to simulate different Keno scenarios:
- Select “Spots Picked”: Choose between 1 and 10.
- Select “Spots Matched”: Input the number of catches you are aiming for.
- Calculate: The tool will instantly generate the percentage chance of that specific outcome occurring.
2026 Strategy Tip: Many veteran Christchurch players look for “Must-Drop” jackpots where the payout temporarily exceeds the mathematical odds, creating a “Positive Expected Value” (+EV) scenario. You can see how this applies when experimenting with free Keno versions.
Keno Hit Chance Calculator
Select how many spots you picked and how many matches you are aiming for. The tool calculates the exact probability of that outcome in standard Keno (80 numbers, 20 drawn).
Is Keno Truly Random?
Yes. Under the 2026 Online Casino Gambling Bill, every licensed provider in New Zealand must have their RNG software audited by independent labs. This ensures that the probability of any single number (from 1 to 80) being drawn is always exactly 25% in every single round.
